Yoshinobu Yamamoto might be the best pitcher alive right now. That’s who he is, and that’s why he signed a 12-year, $325 million deal from the Los Angeles Dodgers.
If that sounds hyperbolic to you, then you’ve come to the right place. You want to know who Yamamoto is and why he can afford the guacamole at Chipotle like it’s no big deal. He has never thrown a pitch in the majors; how can he be the best pitcher alive?
To be honest, it “may be” does a lot of work. Gerrit Cole is a wonder, and so is Zack Wheeler. You can browse through this list of the highest WARs over the past three seasons and pick your personal favorite for “best pitcher alive.” Don’t forget about Roki Sasaki, another Nippon Professional Baseball pitcher, you will many, many, many, very familiar with this time next season.
But Yamamoto is in the conversation, and that’s why he got the contract he did. Let’s get to know Yoshinobu Yamamoto.
What did Yamamoto do in Japan?
OK, look at this: In 2017, he had a 2.35 ERA for the Orix Buffaloes. He had a .750 winning percentage. He struck out five batters for every batter he walked. He allowed 0.5 homers per nine innings.
It was his worst season in the NPB. He was also an 18-year-old rookie. That partial season was probably his lowest point as a professional so far.
As for the rest of the seasons, his career ERA in the NPB is 1.72, if that gives you an idea. He allowed 36 homers over his seven-season career. That’s fewer homers than eight different MLB Hall of Famers have allowed in a season. In his 2023 season, Yamamoto threw 171 innings and allowed two home runs. Not a typo.
His career numbers:
1.72 career ERA
.714 winning percentage
75-30 WL record
9.2 K/9
2.0 BB/9
0.3 HR/9
Yamamoto turned 25 in August. So if the general preconception is that the NPB is “Quadruple-A” in terms of its talent, somewhere between the majors and Triple A, what do you make of a prospect-age pitcher who does that when he’s in his early 20s?
You give him a $325 million contract, that’s what you do.
What is Yamamoto throwing?
Pitches. Mostly good ones. Those who get out miss at bats and prevent home runs.
But if you’re looking for details, our own Eno Sarris has you coveredand he took a deep dive.
First notice its compact movement. He’s not bringing that right arm all the way back, at least not yet. When he does, it’s to get him into Tim Lincecum territory, with the ball held at a 90-degree angle to the ground.
山本由伸 159 ろラストレート＆129 ろラーブ😵
今日最销の159ろんでますますますます
外ギリギリにボールエーンから下ってまするカーブを曲げ込た見逃し三振 pic.twitter.com/K6nbXvcXur— tanaka13ver2023 (@tanaka13ver2021) October 28, 2023
But when it’s time to get to the plate, that right arm comes up quickly and turns into an ultra-short stroke. He helps his mid-to-upper 90s fastball look even faster, as you can see from the emergency swing above.
This video does a good job of breaking down how he gets that velocity, as well as his other pitches:
But back to Sarris’ article. Here are his notes on Yamamoto’s specific pitches, based on the StatCast numbers he posted in the World Baseball Classic:
• A four-seam fastball good enough to be a top-20 fastball in the majors
• The dirtiest splitter in the world
• An elite curveball
• A cutter that is good but needs work
All of this is very exciting, but it won’t work as well if he can’t command where those fields go. Good news, then: His command is freaky elite. He pumps above-average fastballs, world-class splitters and elite curveballs where he generally wants to throw them. The good command combination gives him a chance to be special right from Opening Day.
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Vicious Curveball. 😤
One of the most unique curveball releases. pic.twitter.com/1RENxkObab
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 12, 2023
Are there good big league comparisons for Yamamoto?
Kevin Gausman is an OK one, because of the fastball-splitter combo, but it breaks down when you get to the third pitch. Gausman offers a show-me slider, while Yamamoto can go to that elite curveball.
Roy Oswalt had a similar stature (listed at 6-foot-0, but closer to 5-foot-10, with Yamamoto listed at 5-foot-10) and he used exceptional command, control and stuff to one to be among the best pitchers of his generation. But he was a true sinker baller and not such a batsman.
Masahiro Tanaka is a bit taller than Yamamoto, but he had elite command and control, and the power of his splitter-fastball combination is close to what Yamamoto offers. Still, the height and extension are good separators between the two.
The correct answer is that, no, there aren’t many good comparisons in the big leagues. Gausman is the most obvious one, but only seven pitchers in the majors threw a splitter more than 15 percent of the time last season: Gausman, Alex Cobb, Taijuan Walker, Kenta Maeda, Nathan Eovaldi, Joe Ryan and Tony Gonsolin. However, none of them seem like good comparisons. Yamamoto is sui generis, and comparisons are not very useful. However, Gausman or Eovaldi are probably the best comps. Considering both of them are former All-Stars with a couple of Cy Young Award votes in their past, it looks good.
What is Yamamoto like as a person?
English-language reports from the Japan Times and Japan News described him as a player loved by coaches and someone who adapted extremely well to the NPB despite being a teenager. He likes soft-serve ice cream with soy sauce, which sounds amazing. He is in the salty-sweet club, as everyone in the world should be. He wants to go to Brazil. His favorite food is squid. His favorite color is red, which can lead to a lot of unfounded rumors if the right person tweets it.
Other than that, he’s somewhat of a low-key enigma. However, I found this TikTok of his and made it into a GIF.
Seems important.
There are no guarantees in baseball, especially for pitchers. Arms are jerky.
But when it comes to the kind of gamble teams should take? Here is one of the best you can get. He is the age of a prospect with the resume of a future Hall of Famer, at least in Japan. Now that teams are adept at analyzing pitches and pitches and all that jazz, they’ve come to the conclusion that this guy can pitch. And he represents a rare opportunity, considering his age. If you’re wondering who Yoshinobu Yamamoto is, don’t worry. You will be very, very famous soon enough.
(Top illustration by John Bradford/The Athletic; Photos by Lucas Stevenson and Eric Espada/Getty Images)
