The Baltimore Ravens had their most impressive win of the season on Monday night and the San Francisco 49ers 33-19. Along with looking like worthy Super Bowl contenders, the win puts them in a fantastic position in the AFC. At 12-3, they are one game ahead of Miami and have a chance to take first place next week in a game against this very Dolphins.
Meanwhile, the 49ers’ loss sends them to 11-4 and a three-way tie atop the NFC with the Philadelphia Eagles and Detroit Lions. The 49ers own the tiebreaker over both, but with two games to go, there is still time for the Eagles or Lions to make a move.
What the rest of the NFL, Week 16 saw a lot of movement in the playoff picture. Let’s take a look at where things stand as we head into Week 17.
Listed odds to make the playoffs, the no. 1 seed and win the Super Bowl, it’s all over The Athletics‘s NFL betting model, created by Austin Mock.
AFC playoff photo
| Seed | Team | Record | Week 16 result |
|---|---|---|---|
|
x–1 |
12-3 |
W vs. SF |
|
|
x–2 |
11-4 |
W vs. DALL |
|
|
3 |
9-6 |
L vs. LV |
|
|
4 |
8-7 |
L vs. TB |
|
|
5 |
10-5 |
W vs HOLD |
|
|
6 |
9-6 |
W vs. LAC |
|
|
7 |
8-7 |
L vs. ATL |
x — Playoff spot clinched | z — Division title clinched
Baltimore Ravens
The Ravens delivered a message in San Francisco, not just on the scoreboard with their blowout of the 49ers, but with the way they started the physicality throughout the night. Defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald may have worked his way up a few short lists for teams with head coaching vacancies.
Remaining schedule: vs. Miami Dolphins vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Chance: To reach playoffs: 100 percent | To earn bye: 69.5 percent | To win Super Bowl: 17.2 percent
The Ravens’ defense against the 49ers on Christmas:
◻️ 5 INT
◻️ 9 QB hits
◻️ 4 bagshttps://t.co/Hh2mfOm6AZ pic.twitter.com/XF8vaN0tuT— The Athletic NFL (@TheAthleticNFL) December 26, 2023
Miami Dolphins
The Dolphins just got their first marquee win of the season on Sunday against the Cowboys, and they clinched it with a clutch, game-winning drive just before the buzzer. That’s huge, not just for a seed-hunting team, but as the Dolphins work to build confidence ahead of the playoffs. Now they are in a position to seize the No. 1 seed if they can win in Baltimore on Sunday.
Remaining schedule: at Ravens, vs. Buffalo Bills
Chance: To reach playoffs: 100 percent | To earn bye: 28.9 percent | To win Super Bowl: 13.2 percent
DOLPHINS CUT A PLAYOFF SPOT ON A GO-AWAY FIELD GOAL!
📺: FOX pic.twitter.com/ynIkpoMfGt
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) December 25, 2023
The Chiefs have lost five of eight, and are 2-3 this season against teams that currently have winning records. Although it may feel reckless to write off quarterback Patrick Mahomesisn’t the Chiefs’ resume representative of a team poised to win four straight playoff games.
Remaining schedule: vs. Cincinnati Bengalsat Los Angeles Chargers
Chance: Making playoffs: 98.1 percent | To earn bye: 0 percent | To win Super Bowl: 9.1 percent
The Jags are reeling with four straight losses, and quarterback Trevor Lawrence‘s injuries increase by the week. Their offensive issues the past two weeks can be explained by injuries and Lawrence’s lack of practice time, but the defense is also leaking, giving up 29.5 points per game during the skid. Then again, the Bucs scored three touchdowns off of turnovers, so it became a widespread collapse.
Remaining schedule: vs. Carolina Panthersat Tennessee Titans
Chance: Making playoffs: 65.9 percent | To earn bye: 0 percent | To win Super Bowl: 1.2 percent
GO DEEPER
NFL Week 16 takeaways: Browns, Joe Flacco does it again; time to consider Lions contenders?
Quarterback Joe Flacco, who was sitting on his couch watching football five Sundays ago, has three consecutive 300-yard games for the first time in his career. He hasn’t had a trio of 300-yard games throughout an entire season since 2016. Just a remarkable run.
Remaining schedule: vs. New York Jetsat Bengal
Chance: To reach playoffs: 100 percent | To earn bye: 1.6 percent | To win Super Bowl: 2.9 percent
to tell my kids it’s Santa Claus pic.twitter.com/eTloAPK2EK
— Cleveland Browns (@Browns) December 24, 2023
Buffalo Bills
The Bills started their three-game winning streak in Kansas City, and they are shaping up to be as dangerous as any team in the AFC. There’s also a possibility we’ll see the next chapter of the Bills-Chiefs mini-rivalry in the wild-card round.
Remaining schedule: at New England Patriotsat Dolphins
Chance: Making playoffs: 90.3 percent | To earn bye: 0 percent | To win Super Bowl: 4.7 percent
QB keeper!
📺: @peacock#ProBowlVotes | @JoshAllenQB pic.twitter.com/uy9yYWjbiJ
— Buffalo Bills (@BuffaloBills) December 24, 2023
The Colts laid an egg with a 29-10 loss in Atlanta, and now they are in a four-way tie with the Texans, Steelers and Bengals. The Colts will almost certainly need to win and hope the tiebreakers work in their favor to make the playoffs for the first time since 2020.
Remaining schedule: vs. Raidersagainst the Houston Texans
Chance: Making playoffs: 66.4 percent | To earn bye: 0 percent | To win Super Bowl: 0.9 percent
In the hunt
• Houston Texans (8-7)
• Pittsburgh Steelers (8-7)
• Cincinnati Bengals (8-7)
• Denver Broncos (7-8)
• Las Vegas Raiders (7-8)
Eliminated
• New York Jets (6-9)
• Tennessee Titans (5-10)
• Los Angeles Chargers (5-10)
• New England Patriots (4-11)
NFC playoff photo
| Seed | Team | Record | Week 16 result |
|---|---|---|---|
|
z–1 |
11-4 |
L vs. BALL |
|
|
x–2 |
11-4 |
W vs. NYG |
|
|
z–3 |
11-4 |
W vs. FEW |
|
|
4 |
8-7 |
W vs. JAX |
|
|
x–5 |
10-5 |
L vs. MIA |
|
|
6 |
8-7 |
W vs. NO |
|
|
7 |
8-7 |
W vs. TEN |
x — Playoff spot clinched | z — Division title clinched
San Francisco 49ers
Quarterback Brock Purdy‘s four interceptions will dominate the spotlight in the wake of the 49ers’ one-sided loss to the Ravens, but don’t overlook another key aspect. After falling behind 23-12 with 12:07 left in the third quarter, Purdy was just 8-of-14 passing for 107 yards and one interception over four scoreless possessions before leaving with an injury. The 49ers’ concern was their inability to erase late deficits, and they didn’t make much of a dent when they fell behind on Monday night.
Remaining schedule: at Washington commandersvs. Los Angeles Rams
Chance: To reach playoffs: 100 percent | To earn bye: 74.3 percent | To win Super Bowl: 25.5 percent
Philadelphia Eagles
It’s now well established very little will be easy for the Eagles, who haven’t won a game by more than 8 points since Week 7. While their final two regular season tilts are against non-playoff games, they will be personal against former defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon and the Arizona Cardinals before a rematch with the Giants. The quality of the opposition won’t be elite, but these will be tough games that will serve as good playoff adjustments.
Remaining schedule: vs. Cardinals, at Giants
Chance: To reach playoffs: 100 percent | To earn bye: 22.4 percent | To win Super Bowl: 7.8 percent
GO DEEPER
Eagles hold Giants back from sliding while DeVito sits on bench
Detroit Lions
The Lions finally won the NFC North and will host a playoff game for the first time in 30 years. They will also be looking for their first postseason win in 32 years – and just their second in the Super Bowl era. And in a sadistically appropriate way, they might have to go through the fan favorite Matthew Stafford to get it done.
Remaining schedule: at Dallas Cowboys, vs. Minnesota Vikings
Chance: To reach playoffs: 100 percent | To earn bye: 2.9 percent | To win Super Bowl: 5.2 percent
What was once an aspiration is now a reality in Detroit.
This Lions team knows how to win. It knows how to lock games. It knows better than to leave things to chance, writing @colton_pouncy.
And it doesn’t stop here.
🔗: https://t.co/yXLvQCEtl4 pic.twitter.com/p5dDdcb35l
— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) December 25, 2023
The Bucs had won four in a row, but hadn’t necessarily beaten a quality opponent until they made a statement with a blowout against the Jaguars. There won’t be high expectations for the Buccaneers — or whoever wins the NFC South — against the NFC East runner-up, but a playoff berth in a rebuilding year after a 4-7 start should count as a big success in Tampa be considered.
Remaining schedule: vs. New Orleans Saintsat Panthers
Chance: Making playoffs: 89.1 percent | To earn bye: 0 percent | To win Super Bowl: 1.7 percent
Baker and the Bucs have won four straight games.
The NFC South standings:
◻️ Tampa Bay Bucs (8-7)
◻️ Atlanta Falcons (7-8)
◻️ New Orleans Saints (7-8)
e – Carolina Panthers (2-13) pic.twitter.com/TLyT0EalC4— The Athletic NFL (@TheAthleticNFL) December 25, 2023
Dallas Cowboys
With Sunday’s loss in Miami, the Cowboys fell to 2-2 this season in one-possession games, and have won just once (Week 13 vs. Seahawks) when they fell behind after the first quarter. Their lack of success in hotly contested games will again be a concern in the playoffs.
Remaining schedule: against Lions, at Commanders
Chance: To reach playoffs: 100 percent | To earn bye: 0.5 percent | To win Super Bowl: 7.8 percent
GO DEEPER
Cowboys keep confidence high after second straight loss – both on the road
Los Angeles Rams
There was little reason to believe the Rams would be in this position when they were 3-6, but they’ve won five of six since their bye week and have a chance to play the role of spoiler if they can continue this march to the playoffs.
Remaining schedule: at Giants, at 49ers
Chance: Making playoffs: 68.2 percent | To earn bye: 0 percent | To win Super Bowl: 1.1 percent
GO DEEPER
Puka Nacua shows why he’s in offensive ROY conversation in prime time as Rams keep rolling
Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks don’t score many style points, but they have proven their mettle win close matchesincluding game-winning drives from quarterbacks Gene Smith and Drew Lock in the last two outings. If they can get healthier for the playoffs, this physical team that has endured just a stretch of tough opponents is going to be an unenviable opponent.
Remaining schedule: against Steelers, at Cardinals
Chance: To reach playoffs: 70 percent | To earn bye: 0 percent | To win Super Bowl: 0.9 percent
In the hunt
• Minnesota Vikings (7-8)
• Atlanta Falcons (7-8)
• Green Bay Packers (7-8)
• New Orleans Saints (7-8)
• Chicago Bears (6-9)
Eliminated
• New York Giants (5-10)
• Washington Commanders (4-11)
• Arizona Cardinals (3-12)
• Carolina Panthers (2-13)
(Top photo of Lamar Jackson: Thearon W. Henderson/Getty Images)
“The Football 100,” the definitive ranking of the NFL‘s greatest 100 players of all time, is now available for purchase. Order it here.
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