It was a grim time for lunar exploration. Scientists and space engineers have earmarked 2024 as the year humanity would begin its return to the moon in earnest. An ambitious program – largely funded by Nasa’s $2.6 billion commercial lunar freight services (CLPS) initiative – was set up. Its precursor projects included last week’s launch of the robotic lander, Peregrine – which will be followed by a crewed mission, Artemis II, which would send four people orbiting the moon in September. These missions would form the vanguard for a schedule of further projects, both robotic and crewed, that would lead to the construction of a lunar colony sometime in the next decade.
However, these pioneering aspirations did not have an auspicious beginning. Shortly after its launch on Monday, mission controllers revealed that Peregrine – despite a flawless launch – suffered a critical loss of propellant and would fail to land on the moon. Then came the news that Nasa had decided delaying his Artemis II mission for a year “for security reasons”.
A year expected to herald a breakthrough in lunar exploration is already looking marred, with its setbacks prompting accusations that space engineers no longer have the will or ability to return to the moon. After all, we had many successful moon landings last century. Why can’t we reach them today, critics asked. Is the right stuff missing?
However, such censorship is unfair. Nasa followed a very different path from the one it followed during the heady days of the Apollo missions. This time it put much more onus on private enterprise. Peregrine, for example, was built and launched by commercial companies – unlike the entirely tax-funded lunar missions of the 60s and 70s.
From this perspective, it is expected that private industry – albeit with some NASA support – will take most of the risks and therefore reap most of the benefits. And while the loss of Peregrine was a major misfortune, observers say companies must quickly acquire the expertise that will bring future missions to successful conclusions. They point to Elon Musk’s SpaceX rocket launch program as an ideal example of how trade can move in the space business market.
By opening up the moon to commercial exploitation, it is right that companies that take risks there also get the benefits – even if there is also a danger that a completely unrestrained rush to exploit the moon could have unwelcome consequences.
The lunar surface has several sites that are ideal for conducting important scientific research, including gravitational wave investigations and black hole observations. Many lie in areas where, it is believed, there may be precious sources of water and minerals. Colony-building companies are likely to settle on these sites and ruin their unique scientific potential, astronomers will alert UN officials later this month.
A working group set up by the International Astronomical Union will seek to strengthen international treaties covering the exploitation of extraterrestrial resources.
Such negotiations are likely to be protracted, but are crucial if humanity is to avoid the destruction of sites unique to the moon and science.
Despite last week’s setbacks, the lunar exploitation program will continue, and great care will be required to control how it proceeds over the coming decade.
