This story was originally published by Canary Media.
Heat pumps outsold gas furnaces. Again.
According to data from the Institute of Air Conditioning, Heating and Refrigeration released last week, Americans bought 21 percent more heat pumps in 2023 than the next most popular heating device, fossil gas furnaces. These are the largest lead heat pumps that have been opened over conventional furnaces two decades of data available from the trade group.
As electrical appliances, heat pumps help reduce planet-warming emissions from a major source – space heating – while also leaving consumers stranded fumes harmful to health of gas and fuel oil in their homes. They are almost magically effective; they can produce regularly the same amount of heat as a fossil fueled system using only a third or a quarter of the energy.
Heat pumps’ growing popularity compared to furnaces is “really good news,” he said Alex editsdirector of communications at pro-electrification advocacy group Rewiring America. The US is “absolutely moving in the right direction.”
Last June, Rewiring compiled a year-over-year sales tally growth trajectory for heat pumps it will be fast enough to see adoption from the 16 percent of American homes in which they are installed as of 2023 to all projected 140 million homes by mid-century. Rewiring America’s figures and the data from the Air Conditioning, Heating and Refrigeration Institute are not directly comparable; AHRI tracks units sold during rewiring track households. But still, it’s clear that “we still have a way to go” for gas oven sales to drop to zero, said Wael Kanjresearch associate at Rewiring America.
Sales for both heat pumps and fossil gas furnaces were lower compared to 2023 due to supply chain bottlenecks and a twin pressure from inflation and high interest rates that dampened consumer spending across the board. But heat pumps continued to widen a lead that first emerged in 2022, when they rose before gas ovens by 12 percent and sold more than 4 million units for the first time.
It is important to note that the data does not unequivocally means that more American homes are now installing heat pump systems than gas furnaces. Because heat pumps are modular, home systems often have more than one unit. Larger homes can also install more than one gas furnace.
But the data suggests that the growing popularity of heat pumps could open up new markets across the US. popular in the Southeast where mild climates have long made it a viable option. In recent years, however, heat pump technology has improved, and the device has taken off in states with frigid winter weather, such as Maine and Colorado. Heat pumps have been so popular in Maine that in July the state exceeded its original deployment goal and had to set a new, more ambitious one.
The Biden administration is encouraging the move to heat pumps. The 2022 Inflation Reduction Act stimulate heat pumps with a 30 percent federal tax credit up to $2,000, and federal rebates is expected to begin rolling out this year.
State-level leaders are also setting ambitious clean-heat targets. In September, governors of 25 states promised to install 20 million heat pumps cumulatively by 2030. And last week, nine states upped the ante with a target (albeit a non-binding one) for heat pumps to account for 90 percent of home heating sales by 2040. Many states and utilities also have incentive programs to encourage residents to install heat pumps.
At the same time, consumers are becoming more curious about the technology. As recently reported by DistilledGoogle searches for the term “heat pump” have doubled in the last five years.
Climate advocates are increasingly pressuring policy makers to encourage – or even mandate – homeowners to replace their broken ACs with heat pumps. Data from AHRI reveals a major missed opportunity on this front: Americans are buying more central ACs when they could buy dual purpose heat pumps.
Despite the strong performance for 2023 overall, heat pump sales fell behind gas furnaces in the final quarter of the year. That may be partly because many consumers aren’t willing to switch to a heat pump when their gas furnace breaks, Kanj said; if temperatures drop, they just need a quick replacement.
According to Kanj, it is therefore crucial to make it easier for consumers to choose heat pumps by easing supply chain constraints, educating contractors and the public and helping people plan for the upgrade rather than waiting until they have an emergency. That way, “when someone’s furnace goes out and it’s cold outside … there’s a heat pump ready and waiting.”
