The elected officials making political hay from disasters – Grist

Hello everyone, and welcome back to state of emergency. I’m Jake, and today we’re going to talk about how a politician’s disaster response can affect voter attitudes and election outcomes.

In July 2022, a storm dropped more than 14 inches of rain on Kentucky, sending flash floods rolling through the mountainous counties in the eastern part of the state. The waters killed more than 40 people, some swept away on powerful currents, and dangerous landslides destroyed nearly 9,000 homes. The region’s rural counties bore the brunt of the damage, adding to their already crippling housing crisis and high poverty rates.

The state’s Democratic governor, Andy Beshear, spent weeks touring hard-hit areas and comforting flood victims, earning him the title “chief comforter.” He also pulled out all the stops to ensure the recovery was as quick as possible: he fought the Federal Emergency Management Agency, or FEMA, to increase its aid payments to victims, reallocated $200 million from the state budget reserve to help towns rebuild , set up a state-run charitable fund to raise millions more in private donations, and acquire land on high ground to build new housing developments.

The following year, Beshear was re-elected in his red state, where Donald Trump won by more than 25 percentage points and where Republicans have supermajorities in both legislative chambers. Not only did he win another term, he improved his margins in the first election. Beshear’s electoral success in Appalachia led to speculation that Vice President Kamala Harris would select him as her running mate.

There were a number of reasons for his victory, including public anger over the state’s strict abortion laws, but Beshear made big gains in the rural counties that suffered the most during the disaster in 2022. The residents of those communities were still to rebuild from the floods, but they trusted Beshear to help them recover.

“People didn’t just hear that Andy came to Breathitt County, he actually came and he actually brought help every time he came,” Jeff Noble, the county judge for Breathitt County, said last year in an interview with a local news station said. . Trump won more than 75 percent of the national vote in 2020.

Major disasters often put politicians in the media spotlight, allowing them to pose for photo ops with victims and make solemn promises of recovery at press conferences. Chris Christie, the Republican governor of New Jersey, saw his approval ratings soar in the wake of 2012’s Superstorm Sandy, when he famously hugged then-President Barack Obama on an airport tarmac in Atlantic City. During the early days of the coronavirus pandemic, New York’s then-governor Andrew Cuomo became a household name for his daily virus briefings. A study of elections in Italy found that earthquakes “significantly increase … the incumbent mayors’ chance of re-election and their vote share,” thanks largely to “higher media visibility.”

It is impossible to say with certainty whether Beshear’s political success after the flood in the eastern part of the state came because he provided real material aid to the region, or whether it was simply the result of higher media visibility. To be sure, the recovery has not been smooth, and it is far from over. As Grist and Blue Ridge Public Radio’s own Katie Myers reported, many residents still feel lost and abandoned as they navigate a post-flood housing shortage. Still, the lesson is clear: Voters value an authentic disaster response from their politicians, so much so that it can override other political values. In a hyper-partisan electoral environment, and one where climate change is making disasters worse, this is a point worth remembering.

You can read more Grist reporting on the recovery from the 2022 floods here and here.

Don’t mess with Texas

While Beshear has earned praise for working across party lines to help flood victims in Kentucky, other governors have drawn criticism for politicizing the disaster process. In the wake of July’s Hurricane Beryl, President Joe Biden accused leaders of Texas of delaying their request for a disaster declaration, a necessary step before FEMA and other federal agencies can provide emergency relief. The state didn’t get an emergency declaration until more than a day after the storm hit Texas, something that often happens long before a hurricane even makes landfall. The state’s governor, Republican Greg Abbott, was out of the country, and Biden said Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick dragged his feet in requesting help. Patrick called the comments “a complete lie.”

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