The UK can expect a “tsunami of missed cancers”, leading experts have said, after an international study found diagnoses fell sharply during the pandemic.
Preliminary figures from the International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership, presented to delegates at the World Cancer Congress in Geneva, compared data on the incidence and stage of cancer diagnosis in Australia, Canada, Denmark, Ireland, New Zealand, Norway and the UK, before and during the pandemic.
The results showed that UK countries had the biggest and most sustained falls in lung, breast, colorectal and skin cancer diagnoses during 2020. Northern Ireland and Wales fared particularly badly compared to the other countries studied.
While all countries saw a drop in cases diagnosed at the peak of the pandemic, most caught up within the year. In contrast, Wales and Northern Ireland still had not recovered their diagnosis rates by the end of 2020.
The study calculated that breast diagnoses fell by 35% in Northern Ireland and Wales between April and July 2020, compared with 24% in Norway and 14% in Denmark. For lung cancer, the decrease over the same period was 16% in Northern Ireland and Wales compared with 10% in Norway or 1% in New Zealand.
For the most affected month, 44% of breast cancer cases and 30% of lung cancer cases were missed in Northern Ireland and Wales. There have also been sharp declines in colorectal cancer diagnoses.
The decline in diagnosed cases was greatest for early-stage cancers, partly due to the suspension of screening programs. In Northern Ireland and Wales, stage I breast cancer diagnoses decreased by 44% and 51% respectively.
Cancer experts said that because of such large drops in diagnoses, they expect to see many more patients presenting with more advanced, late-stage cancers.
“This data is a shocking wake-up call, providing key evidence that the UK can expect a tsunami of missed cancers and a potential shift in stage that could lead to more aggressive cancers that are harder to treat,” said Mark Lawler . professor of digital health at Queen’s University Belfast and chair of the International Cancer Benchmarking Partnership. “And the fact that we are still a long way from the 62-day target to treat cancer can only make the problem worse.”
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Leading oncologist and co-founder of the Catch Up With Cancer campaign, Prof Pat Price, said: “These figures are a timely and devastating confirmation of the colossal cancer crisis. Without urgent action, we will see more patients diagnosed at a later stage and more patients facing delays in treatment.
“We were at the bottom of the cancer league tables before the pandemic, and as this study shows, we simply haven’t recovered from the backlog in diagnosis. It doesn’t have to be that way though, like Lord Darzi’s new one NHS report highlights. If ever there was a time to deliver and implement a dedicated cancer recovery plan, it’s now.”
Naser Turabi, director of evidence and implementation at Cancer Research UK, said: “These findings suggest that the UK health system lacks resilience compared to countries such as New Zealand, making it more vulnerable to the impact of Covid. This could have serious consequences for cancer patients who have experienced delays in diagnosis due to overstretched services.”
