Today’s puzzle is about voters who are embarrassed to tell pollsters what they really think.
In past elections, right-wing parties such as the Conservatives have often done better than opinion polls predict. One explanation is that ‘shy Tory’ voters lie to pollsters because they are embarrassed to admit their preferences in public. With the US polls neck and neck, the existence of shy Trump voters could decide the election. (As Harris voters may be ashamed of, of course.)
Is there a way to encourage voters to overcome any embarrassment and respond honestly?
The shy voter conundrum
Imagine an election with two candidates, say Trump and Harris. Many voters are ashamed to admit who they are voting for.
You are a pollster, go door to door. You have a coin in your pocket. Your goal is to find the percentages that will vote for each candidate.
Can you think of a voting method that makes voters comfortable giving their honest preference, even if they are embarrassed to admit their preferred candidate to you?
The method should result in a reasonably accurate poll, although it may not be 100 percent accurate.
I’ll be back at 5pm UK with a solution. PLEASE NO SPOILERS. Please discuss times you have lied to pollsters.
Speaking of coins in pockets, please let me have a pre-Christmas plug for my new book, Tlimp Twice: Solve the puzzles that (almost) everyone gets wrong. The idea behind the book is to make you think about thinking – while enjoying the pleasure of being deceived. The questions are not ‘trick’ questions; instead, they reveal our biases and flawed reasoning.
Think twice: solve the simple puzzles (almost) all get wrong. To support the Guardian and Observer, order your copy from guardianbookshop.com. Delivery charges may apply. (In the US the book is called Puzzle Me Twice.)
I’ve been doing a puzzle here on alternate Mondays since 2015. I’m always on the lookout for great puzzles. If you want to suggest one, email me.
