Last weekend, a very small wildfire broke out in a hilly and densely vegetated area of Prospect Park, a piece of green space in Brooklyn. The 2-hectare fire drew about 100 firefighters as residents were warned to stay out of the park. Meanwhile, on the New York-New Jersey border, another fire, the Jennings Creek wildfire, burned thousands of acres, sending smoke drifting over much of New York City and an 18-year-old New York -killed state forest ranger volunteer. died while responding to the fire.
Is this typical? Not exactly. But the North East has been under severe drought conditions for weeks. These fires, and the dozens of others currently burning in the Northeast and across the Ohio River Valley, as well as scores more in the western US, are the result of months of unseasonably warm and dry weather across large swaths of the country.
OK, pause: What is a drought? Simply put, a drought is a dry period – that is, a long time without any rain or snow – leading to a water shortage. Droughts can (and do) happen all over the world; they are not just a feature of a desert or a regional problem. Extreme drought can stress landscapes and water tables, regardless of whether a city is built on top of them. If a drought lasts long enough, people in that place may lose access to water.
While the western United States is associated with aridity, it is remarkable to see this extent of drought spread across the Northeast. And current forecasts show that the conditions will continue for weeks or even months.
“It is problematic to see drought in all parts of the country. This is not just a regional issue,” said Brian Fuchsa climatologist at the National Drought Mitigation Center. “No matter where you are, drought can and will affect you.”
Firefighters put out the Prospect Park fire. Rain mercifully moved into New York on Sunday evening, dousing much of the smoke drifting over the East Coast, obscuring the fact that a cluster of fires continued to burn in New Jersey.
As the smoke clears, attention shouldn’t: Millions of people in the Northeast remain under red flag wildfire warnings, which indicate conditions where anything that can spark is likely to lead to a fire. But we all now live with drought, extreme heat and fire – and our relationship with water is linked to how bad things can get.
Why is the drought so bad?
For much of the country, October was an extremely hot and dry month. We are on track to make 2024 the hottest year on record, World Meteorological Organization forecasters say make with confidence even with more than a month to go.
According to the US Drought Monitorthe long periods of hot and dry conditions left every state in the country facing drought – an unprecedented statistic.
There is no single driver responsible for the extent of the current drought conditions. Even if our global average temperatures rising thanks to climate change, our short-term weather patterns will shift all the time. For example, despite Hurricane Helene bringing loads of moisture to places like North Carolina a little over a month ago, even western North Carolina is now abnormally dry. How can that be? Because it has been so hot and dry in the weeks since – enough to stop any sign of a so-called thousand year event.
“When I started looking at data over the last six months, you see that places like New Jersey, the Ohio River Valley, many of the plains have 12 to 15 inches below normal precipitation for this time of year,” Fuchs said. “New York has a deficit of 10 inches. That’s very extreme for this part of the country.”
And then there are these warmer temperatures later in the year that end up amplifying the ongoing drought’s worst effects. Temperatures usually drop significantly by November. Trees will drop their leaves and go dormant. Certain critters hibernate or go into low power mode. Snow begins to accumulate in the higher elevations, bank moisture that will melt – gradually – during the warmer periods.
But when it’s 80 degrees in New York in November, trees and vegetation still eat water. There is an extra period of demand on the overall water system, and this puts a strain on water resources – lakes and streams begin to recede and the soil holds less moisture. Vegetation that grew earlier in the year begins to dry out – fueling wildfires.
“It really doesn’t take much time to transition to a hot and dry environment and suddenly you have all this extra fuel for wildfires,” Fuchs said. “It’s the perfect mix for fires to bloom.”
Should we expect more wildfires?
Drought is a normal part of our climate, but it is not normal to see this much dryness over so much of the country.
This extreme period of dry weather is part of the bigger picture that scientists have come to expect: that our weather will become more extreme and unpredictable, and that we will collectively experience more pronounced swings from incredibly dry periods to incredibly wet periods.
Those dry spells, Fuchs says, are related to warmer temperatures that persist into what should be the colder parts of the year and increase demand on our water systems.
That question, by the way, includes water consumption by you, me and everyone else. Just multiply our daily showers, pulls from the faucet, run our dishwashers and washing machines, wash our cars, water our houseplants (and so on) with the millions of people who live in a watershed, the area that provides a single source of water for ‘ a particular region.
If there is too much demand on an already stressed landscape, the risk of wildfires increases as water levels in streams and in our water table drop.
To better navigate the conditions we see today and the climate we should expect in the future, we need to understand that no place is immune to drought conditions, Fuchs said. “Even if you think you haven’t been affected by drought in the past, it’s increasingly important for people to know where their water comes from and conserve it as best you can at all times,” he said.
“We are actively experiencing severe climate change impacts,” said Aradhna Tripathia climate scientist from UCLA who assisted the author latest national climate assessment. Climate change “is no longer theoretical or a distant threat, an abstract one. It is not something that happens here in the future. It is not something that only happens in places far from where we live. All weather is now affected.”
Yes – even in New York City.
