Fifteen goals. That’s all Alex Ovechkin is on pace to finish the 2023-24 season at this rate.
Ovechkin has never finished a season with a mere 15 goals. He has never fallen below the 20-goal mark, even in shortened seasons. And now, for the first time in his career, he has gone 13 consecutive games without a goal. The five goals he has at this point aren’t even that impressive – only three have been scored with a goalkeeper in the net.
Even though the 38-year-old Ovechkin is far removed from his prime, it’s a sharp, unexpected decline for one of the greatest scorers of all time. So what’s behind the aging superstar’s demise? Is this harsh reality the new normal? Is there a chance he can turn it around in the second half of the season?
The elephant in the room is his age. Not every player makes it to 38 in the NHL, and if they do, they are often a shell of themselves at this point in their career. Aging curves — detailed in the work from Evolving Hockey’s Luke and Josh Younggren or Cam Lawrencenow of the Columbus Blue Jackets – support it. These curves tell us a player tends to peak in their early to mid-20s and begin to decline in their 30s with a sharp decline in their late 30s. It’s worth noting that the sample of skaters still playing into their late 30s is obviously much smaller to work with.
There can be outliers and randomness in aging curves, and they usually center around elite talent. Their high tends to be so high that their eventual downtrend can still be above average. This, coupled with the fact that power play score tends to age better than even production (as indicated by now-Assistant GM of the Carolina Hurricanes Eric Tulsky’s work) should in theory work in Ovechkin’s favor. So should the fact that volume shooters tend to age better than snipers (eg Tulsky’s and Ryan Stimson‘s work showed both). That just hasn’t been the case this season.
The power play aspect is particularly notable, as this is where Ovechkin tends to do much of his damage. About 37 percent of his goals per season, on average, have come on the power play. At his best, power play scoring accounted for 50 percent of his goal totals. This year, with just one score on the power play, it accounts for a career-low 20 percent of his scoring. That’s down more than 10 percent from each of the past two seasons.
Ovechkin’s had terrible shooting luck this year, converting on only 2.6 percent of his shots on the power play when he’s closer to around 15 percent overall. That should weakens closer to average and leads to more goals – especially since his shot rate isn’t much lower than last year’s when he scored 14 power play goals. In fact, the quality of his shots is better than last year with an individual expected field goal rate of 2.3 per 60. Based on the quality of his shots, before even accounting for the shooting talent he has, expect him to be closer to five goals on the power play.
Via HockeyViz
About 30 percent of the winger’s unblocked attempts missed the net, which is relatively low compared to recent years. But one difference is just how many opponents block his shots. Just under 32 percent of his attempts have been blocked this season, which is pretty close to last season. On average (back to 2007-08, due to data limitations), penalty killers blocked only about 27 percent of his shots.
In recent years, penalty killers could not afford to commit to Ovechkin, even though he was the team’s biggest threat on the power play. There was too much talent elsewhere on that top unit to be aware of. So having fewer options on the power play now probably plays into why penalty killers are even more actively blocking Ovechkin’s shots.
It could also be why penalty killers feel they can try harder to cheat Ovechkin, if not completely block his shooting lanes. Limiting his ability to get the puck in the first place neutralizes the team’s best power play shot. Even better for the opponent if they can gain possession and clear the zone. Forcing someone like Ovechkin, who plays 95 percent of the available power play time, to skate back can lead to fatigue during long shifts.
Also to be considered is the predictability of their power play formation. Sure there were adjustments this season – lost Nicklas Backstrom was one, moved Yevgeny Kuznetsov from the upper unit and add Tom Wilson on was another. But a lack of fluid movement and too much standing still in formation hurts Washington. So is the obvious strategy of trying to feed Ovechkin for his patented one-timer.
Slap shots aren’t used as much in today’s game because it’s fairly easy for players to read the setup, and in Ovechkin’s case, that can mean waiting while his stick is in the air ready to rip. With the right pass to precede it, it can be one of the hardest shots to block. That apron movement is essential to the danger of a shot. It is difficult for a goalkeeper to react to one set up by a lateral cross-seam pass. What makes his attempts less dangerous than in years past is where those layup passes often come from. Whether he is deployed with the first or second unit, he is typically from the point by either John Carlson or Rasmus Sandin.
Compare it to last year. Of Ovechkin’s 15 power play goals last season, 11 were one-timers. While six were set up from centralized passes from the point, another five were on a lateral pass. As dangerous as his one-timer is, those shots aren’t as deadly as they could be because of the setup pass. The game evolves and even some of the best have to adapt.
The one power play goal Ovechkin done scoring this year actually started with a cross-slot pass from Wilson. While the initial one-timer wasn’t the shot that beat Torontosay Joseph Wollled the player movement down the sequence to a goal for instead of the play being cleared or the Capitals trying to just repeat the same attempts.
The problem for Ovechkin is that his scoring streak extends beyond just the power play. He has just one five-on-five goal on the season. Here, a low shooting percentage bites him again at 1.85 percent, when his career average is around 11. But there are other troubling trends, including career lows (since 2007-08) in shot volume and expected scoring. A higher percentage of his shots missed the net compared to last year, and more were also blocked by opponents.
In addition to individual declines that should be expected at this point in his career, the team around him affects his start. It’s not unrealistic to think that someone, even of Ovechkin’s caliber, needs more support at age 38 to play to his potential. Surrounding him with high-caliber pass rushers could be the key to maintaining his success as he is no longer at the heights of years past. But according to Corey Sznadjer’s tracking, his primary centers Dylan Strome and even Evgeny Kuznetsov moved the puck less. Both players have seen a decline in their passing to set up their teammates’ shots and scoring chances, and there isn’t a playmaking wing that can skate over Ovechkin to make up for it on this roster. That could explain why his shot and goal chance numbers are down compared to last year in his isolated minutes with both Strome and Kuznetsov.
What does this mean for Ovechkin’s pursuit of the all-time scoring record?
Some areas of Ovechkin’s game should regress closer to average. He shouldn’t be shooting at five percent all year and could get closer to his career average of 12.8 if he can continue to fire the puck at a high rate. As it stands, he is the 10th most frequent shooter in the league in all situations. And he has the fourth largest gap between his actual goal total and expectations, only behind Matthew Tkachuk, Josh Anderson and John Tavares. This bodes well for a more productive stretch ahead. Had he stayed on track with expectations to start the season, he would have been looking at a potential 36-goal season that would be ideal progress toward this next milestone. This is before taking into account the shooting talent that he has shown very clearly year after year, including last season.
But even as Ovechkin’s pace picks up, he’s lost so much ground through the first third of the season. And there’s no guarantee the pace will reach the pace he needs to stay on track for the standings. The roster support just isn’t there to make up for the individual declines, and stamina can be an issue. He’s been less physical this season, which may protect him from that wear and tear, and his average ice time is down to a career-low 18:22 in all situations. But 82 games is a grind for anyone, especially an aging star.
Aging is inevitable and no player, not even the greats like Ovechkin, is immune to it. The race for goal number 894 to equal the record is not lost – but such a slow start to this season makes the next 67 goals look all the more daunting.
— Data collected before Sunday’s game versus Carolinaby Developing hockey, HockeyViz, Hockey reference, AllThreeZones and NaturalStatTrick. This story relies on shot-based statistics; here is a primer on these numbers.
(Photo: Ronald Martinez / Getty Images)
