The worsening rivalry between the world’s two most powerful countries that has spread across the world in recent years has now extended beyond the earthly, into the realms of the heavens.
As China has become deeply entangled in strategic competition with the US – as it moves toward outright hostility with other regional neighbors – Washington’s alarm over the pace of its advances in space is growing louder.
Beijing has made no secret of its ambitions and a spate of recent successful space missions showed that the government’s rhetoric is backed up by technological advances.
on friday, China has launched a robotic spacecraft on a round trip to the moon’s far side, in a technically demanding mission that will pave the way for a first Chinese crew landing and a base on the lunar south pole. The Chang’e-6 aims to bring back samples from the side of the moon that permanently faces away from Earth.
Earlier this week, the Shenzhou-18 was launched, Beijing’s latest manned spacecraft mission to the Tiangong space station, which was developed after China was excluded from the International Space Station.
Along with the three taikonauts, a live fish called “the fourth crewman” was among the crew. The zebrafish is part of an experiment to test the viability of a large closed ecosystem, involving fish and algae, to help humans live in space for long periods of time.
But the collection of lunar samples and the viability of zebrafish are not the only focus for China’s space sector.
The pace of China’s ambitions has drawn concern from the government’s arch-rival, the US, about Beijing’s geopolitical intentions amid what the head of Nasa called a new “space race”.
Last week, Nasa chief Bill Nelson said the US and China were “in effect in a race” to return to the moon, and he feared that China wanted to make territorial claims.
“We believe that a lot of their so-called civilian space program is a military program,” he told US lawmakers.
There are concerns about China’s development of anti-space weapons, including missiles that can target satellites, and spacecraft that can pull satellites out of orbit.
“On a geopolitical level, China’s space ambitions raise questions about how it can use its space capabilities to advance its regional and domestic political and military interests,” said Dr. Svetla Ben-Itzhak, deputy director of Johns Hopkins University’s West Space Scholars Program.
US Space Command Gen Stephen Whiting told reporters last week that China’s advances were “cause for concern”, noting that it had tripled the number of spy satellites in orbit over the past six years.
‘It’s the Wild Wild West’
The US and China are indeed in a race, says Prof Kazuto Suzuki, from the Graduate School of Public Policy at the University of Tokyo, but it is not simply to set foot on the moon as during the cold war. Rather, it is about finding and controlling resources, such as water.
“It’s a race for who has better technical ability. China is catching up fast. The pace of Chinese technological development is the threatening element [to the US],” he says.
Suzuki says international agreements do not allow for national appropriation of resources on the moon, but in fact “it is the wild, wild west”.
“In general, China wants to be first so that they have the right to dominate and monopolize the resources. If you have the resources in your hand, you have a huge advantage in the future of space exploration.”
The US and China are leading the development of separate space station programs for the moon. The US-led Artemis program includes plans for a “Lunar Gateway”, a station orbiting the moon as a communications and accommodation center for astronauts, and a scientific laboratory.
However, the Americans “are not so interested in owning the moon because they have been there”, says Suzuki.
“They know it’s not really a habitable place, they’re more interested in Mars. So for them, the Lunar Gateway is kind of a gas station for the trip to Mars.” If the Artemis program can obtain water from the moon, it can be processed to create rocket fuel from the hydrogen and oxygen.
In contrast, China and Russia announced joint plans to build in 2021 a shared research station on the surface of the moon. The International Lunar Research Station (ILRS) will be open to any interested international parties they said. However, the US is unlikely to be among them given its poor relations with both China and Russia.
Suzuki says the China-Russia station “is supposed to serve like the research station in Antarctica”, which is within the rules of international space treaties. “But if it’s a station to base their territorial claims on, then it’s against the rules.”
The US is gathering allies to ensure that China does not win the space race. Earlier this month, not long after China announced its intention to land a person on the moon, US leader Joe Biden and his Japanese counterpart Fumio Kishida pledged to send an astronaut from Japan – China’s historic rival – to sending to the moon on Nasa’s Artemis missions in 2028 and again in 2032.
But China is also gathering allies. It has partnerships or financial interests in projects across the Middle East and Latin America, and about a dozen international members for its ILRS.
But Ben-Itzhak notes that there are some overlapping memberships. Also, “none of the blocs have introduced exclusionary practices so far, which is promising”.
Ben-Itzhak says the US and China are indeed engaged in a race, but the term does not fully capture the complex, nuanced dynamics currently unfolding in the space, in terms of the diverse and increasing number of actors and initiatives, and not clear. end goal in sight”.
“The real challenge in space is not just about reaching a specific milestone, such as planting flags or collecting rocks; it’s about establishing a sustainable, resilient presence in an incredibly challenging environment. It’s a test against our own abilities.”
Additional research by Chi Hui Lin
